Reform UK Surges as Political Force Following Major Electoral Gains – Week 20 2025

This week has marked a turning point for Reform UK, as the party transitioned from fringe contender to a serious national force. With landmark wins across local councils, a surprising mayoral victory, and surging polling data, Reform is redefining the political landscape—drawing support from disillusioned Conservative and Labour voters alike.

Local Election Victories Signal a Political Realignment

In what analysts are calling a “political earthquake,” Reform UK seized control of West Northamptonshire Council, jumping from no representation to an outright majority. The result ousted the long-standing Conservative administration and shocked many in the political establishment.

The momentum continued with a dramatic upset in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, where Reform candidate Sarah Pochin overturned a significant Labour majority to win by just six votes. This razor-thin margin represents the closest by-election result in British political history.

Adding to their week of victories, former Conservative MP Andrea Jenkyns won the mayoral race in Greater Lincolnshire. She claimed eight out of nine voting areas and secured more than 104,000 votes. Reform UK now holds direct executive power for the first time—an important milestone for any rising party.

Rising in the National Polls

Reform’s local gains are being echoed in national polling. A recent Ipsos survey revealed that 37% of Britons now view Reform UK as the main opposition party, compared with 33% for the Conservatives.

Equally telling is the shift in leadership perception: Nigel Farage is now viewed by many as a more viable future Prime Minister than Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch. This is a stark reversal from just months ago, when Reform struggled for mainstream relevance.

Public sentiment appears to align with Reform’s message. Many voters cite frustration with “two-party complacency” and increasingly identify with Reform’s no-nonsense rhetoric on immigration, taxation, and national identity.

Policy Initiatives: Governance with Purpose

With control of councils and a mayoralty, Reform UK has begun acting on its policy commitments. One of their first moves is a review of local government pension funds—challenging ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) investment strategies in favour of traditional financial performance metrics. As reported by the Financial Times, the party is seeking to eliminate what it calls “ideologically driven” public sector finance practices.

In West Northamptonshire, the newly formed Reform-led administration is already restructuring council departments with a focus on accountability, delivery, and what they describe as “value for taxpayer money.” Early sentiment from constituents in those areas is optimistic, with many saying they feel they finally have a voice in local governance again.

A Clear Challenge to the Political Establishment

The party’s surge has not gone unnoticed in Westminster. In a recent Financial Times interview, Prime Minister Keir Starmer reportedly acknowledged Nigel Farage as the “real opposition,” a striking admission that highlights just how quickly Reform has reshaped the national dialogue.

The biggest losers in this week’s developments appear to be the Conservatives, who have seen traditional safe seats fall into Reform’s hands. A growing number of Conservative voters, particularly in the North and Midlands, have shifted allegiance amid disillusionment with years of stagnation and broken promises.

Analysis: What This Means for British Politics

Reform UK’s rise is not just a protest—it is becoming a movement. Its appeal cuts across old party lines and speaks to a broader desire for a new kind of politics: unapologetically populist, anti-bureaucratic, and focused on national interests. Whether or not this momentum can translate into parliamentary seats at the next general election remains to be seen, but the groundwork is clearly being laid.

Critics argue that Reform lacks a detailed governing programme and may struggle under the scrutiny of sustained national attention. But this week’s wins show that voters are willing to take that risk, at least for now. The next phase will test whether Reform can scale its insurgent energy into a stable, long-term political platform.

Conclusion

This week has marked a breakout moment for Reform UK. From council chambers to the national conversation, the party is no longer on the sidelines—it is firmly at the centre of the political stage. If current trends continue, Britain’s next general election may no longer be a two-horse race.